Thanks to the pandemic and its one-two punch on the economy, I was furloughed from my day job — at a major health care provider in Michigan — in the middle of last summer. To pass the time, I took a seasonal gig behind the gun counter at a local outdoor sporting goods store. As the weeks ticked by, ammunition became increasingly scarce and the mood of our usually good-natured, loyal customers began to sour. Every day, sales associates were pelted by angry comments along the lines of, “What the fuck? You can sell me a gun, but you can’t sell me the ammunition that goes with it?” Or, “What good is a gun if I can’t shoot it?!” There were accusations of employee hoarding, hidden inventory, and even government conspiracies. So what’s the truth behind this national ammunition shortage?
The scarcity of ammunition is the result of a perfect storm that initially formed during the first quarter of 2020 as the effects of a worldwide pandemic took hold. In one fell swoop, the COVID-19 outbreak and the restrictions that came with it put the brakes on a roaring US economy. Businesses, many of which were considered financially sound prior to the pandemic, closed their doors for good. The worldwide supply chain snapped like a dry twig as we frantically searched for masks, hand sanitizer, isopropyl alcohol, toilet paper, food staples, and, yes, guns.
Widespread civil unrest swept the nation by summer, with intensity the likes of which we haven’t seen since the 1960s. Buildings burned, stores were looted, and reports of violence and rising crime rates made national headlines. All the while, some called to defund local and regional law enforcement agencies, and several municipalities followed through. Fear of the virus, fear of food shortages, and fear of riots — real or imagined — gripped many American hearts and minds. Guns and the ammo to feed them flew off the shelves in record numbers — and continue to do so — many going to people making their very first firearms purchase. When talking to these first-time customers from behind the counter where I work, I can’t tell you how many times the conversation starts with: “I never thought I would buy a gun.”
The storm was upgraded to hurricane status in the face of what was arguably the most contentious national election in US history. Among other polarizing political topics of the 2020 election was gun control. During the presidential campaign, Joe Biden proposed a federal gun registration under the National Firearms Act (NFA) and a $200 tax stamp for modern sporting rifles such as AR-15s, along with magazines with a capacity of 10 rounds or more. Whether these proposals will gain any traction or hold up in the courts is another question. Yet with a pro-gun-control majority now in Washington, firearms owners new and old are paying extra attention. This heightened state of awareness has created fertile ground for misinformation to take root regarding the lack of ammunition on store shelves. The most popular whoppers purport collusion between the big ammo companies to stockpile ammo and drive up demand, as well as a secret directive from the Biden administration to withhold ammo from citizens and only sell it to the military. While these conspiracy theories are certainly tasty to chew on, the truth is as bland as an unbuttered slice of bread.
Economics 101
The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), one of the leading trade associations in the firearms industry, estimates that 8.4 million people bought their first firearm in 2020. That number is staggering. While gun sales traditionally spike in election years, the unforeseen pressures created by the events of 2020 created unprecedented, history-making demand — and it was impossible to see it coming.
According to Tom Taylor, chief marketing officer and executive vice president for commercial sales with Sig Sauer, there is no sinister plot afoot. “Contrary to what you may hear from the rumor mill, the ammunition situation is not the result of some government conspiracy,” he said. “Sig is not a huge ammunition manufacturer, but we do a good amount of business with certain retailers and our direct-to-consumer channel. There is no shortage of guns and ammo — we are manufacturing more than ever. [The problem] is actually a massive increase in demand, on an unprecedented scale. Supply can simply not keep up with demand.”
Large manufacturers such as Vista Outdoor are experiencing the same challenges related to supply and demand. Vista owns the Federal, CCI, Speer, and (as of October 2020) Remington ammunition brands. Vista’s president of ammunition, Jason Vanderbrink, echoed Taylor’s remarks about supply and demand in a video to customers, published on YouTube.
“I’m tired of all the hate mail,” Vanderbrink said. “I’m tired of people showing up at our factories. I’m tired of reading the misinformation out on the internet right now [suggesting we are not] trying to service the demand that we’re experiencing. It gets really old when I hear and read constantly that our ammunition companies are not making ammunition [or that we’re storing it] in secret warehouses.”
Vanderbrink encourages frustrated consumers to focus on some basic economics: “7 million new shooters since March [2020], times two boxes [per customer] which is a conservative estimate, is 700 million new rounds of ammunition our three factories have to help produce,” he continued. (Note the words “new rounds” in his comments. Those 700 million rounds are over and above the quantity required to meet previous peak production metrics.)
Ramping up to meet these demands does not happen overnight. Expanding production means additional shifts, which, in turn, require a larger staff that must be trained. Complicating these efforts is Vista’s work to spin up the recently acquired Remington factory in Lonoke, Arkansas, which had been idle since Remington Outdoors filed for bankruptcy. Finally, Vanderbrink pointed out his beefed-up infrastructure only works efficiently when a commensurate inventory of raw material is available — in particular, primers and brass are in short supply.
“We are doing our damnedest to meet this demand,” he said. “We’re making more [ammo] than we ever have.”
Hoarders and Scalpers
Ammunition manufacturing plants being pushed beyond production capacity is only one part of the problem. Hungry and (in some cases) greedy customers share some of the blame as well. Much as the “Black Tuesday” stock market crash of 1929 caused Americans to panic and make a run on banks, the combined events of 2020 motivated gun owners to stockpile ammunition.
Around the holidays, I encountered a young shopper at my store who did not own a firearm chambered for a rimfire round but felt he should buy a bunch of .22 LR cartridges because they were the only handgun ammo we had in stock. Indeed, many gun owners developed the mentality of “if you see it, buy it” — whether they needed it or not. Sprinkle in a little paranoia associated with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosive’s recent debacle regarding AR-15 pistols, and a new president and Congress sweeping into Washington with a promise to push gun control — well, you get the picture.
While hoarding is certainly not helping the situation, one can understand that type of response, especially considering the past 12 months have been such a roller coaster of anxiety. A greater concern is the opportunistic individuals who have chosen to take advantage of a crisis to line their own pockets. Scalping is a process that’s typically associated with buying hard-to-find sporting event and concert tickets at face value, then reselling them at inflated prices. The ammo crisis is tailor-made to attract this type of unethical entrepreneurship as well. To combat scalping, many stores have imposed strict buying limits on customers and chosen to remain tight-lipped about scheduled delivery dates.
Sadly, certain brick-and-mortar stores across the country are in cahoots with scalpers as well. In a recent article for Outdoor Life, author Chris Mudgett described how the incredible demand for ammunition has created a secondary market: “Let’s say a local customer paid .50 cents per round in the spring, and has been out of work due to COVID. He recognizes he can make a little side money if he sells a quantity of his ammo back to the retailer for .75 cents per round, thus making a decent profit on his original purchase. The store then adds their margin, say .25 cents per round, and puts it on the shelves for a buck per round. This is pure economics and why you are seeing $100 boxes of 115-grain FMJ Winchester White Box bulk packs that should cost about $25 per 100 rounds.”
Of course, this practice is not representative of all retailers. Many out there are doing whatever is necessary to avoid gouging customers. According to Taylor, “Sig Sauer has made a very conscious effort to avoid price gouging. While we’ve certainly encountered cost increases with manufacturing, we have — for the most part — been able to absorb these increases without passing them on to our retailers who buy from us directly and customers who patronize our online store at sigsauer.com.” The problem is, there’s nothing to prevent someone from buying ammunition from ethical sellers at “normal” prices, then turning around and scalping it for a profit.
Is the end in sight? Unfortunately, there’s no clue about when ammunition inventories will normalize. Both Taylor and Vandenbrink referenced back orders that extend well into 2021. And that time frame does not necessarily account for the changing political climate in the US and the potential for more social unrest. However, consumers can rest assured that ammunition manufacturers are doing everything they can to continue pushing out rounds in record numbers. Until supply rises adequately to meet demand, remember your manners — avoid the temptation to hoard ammunition and share it with those in need.
Read Next:
Tommy says
If this is a problem with private gun owners, what would we do if we were to have to fight a war? Our present stock would deplete fast and what few ammo producers we have now in the U.S. would not be able to meet the demand of a full scale war. Should I be buying bricks and rocks to augment my present ammo stock?
Texas West says
We have a military to “fight a war.” The citizen will not be fighting a war in any case; and if by the impossible odds they should “fight a war,” they will something a hell of a lot bigger than a 5.56, 7.62, or 9mm. Relax…Clean drinking water and sanitation is hundreds of times more important that ammo!
Augustine terminel says
I would like to comment on the “60 minutes” show Sunday evening. that performed a ammo test on ballistic gel using only a 9mm and the .223 calibers. I told them that it was a biased test and that the (AR-15) caliber has been around since the 50’s and 60’s. I asked why they didn’t test a .308 or a 30-06. The testing of only two calibers is not a good test and they should have used more calibers. I said they did not do sufficient research before performing those tests. I finished the message with “Shame on you”.
Will Clark says
Just about every store in the country is ripping consumers off with the price of ammo. Stores in the internet are charging 20$ for shipping and handling to deliver one box of ammo, other charge 25$ for delivering 2 boxes of ammo, and I mean of 20 to 25 rounds.
I think by now most people have purchased enough ammo, and the shelves will start filling again soon. Lets see what kind of price they come at. Lets wait and see if the sellers say the manufacturers raised the price a lot. Maybe selling the volume they are selling today only woke their greed…
Kent E Norberg says
Hello
when will ammo suppleys return to normal 9 m and 40 and 45 ?
Frank says
I completely agree. Only when the domestic terrorists aka Antifa and BLM and the socialist liberal mayors/governors/officials are eradicated everything will get back to normal. God bless America.
William says
Agree
Richard Moore says
Although some of this tale maybe true, the parts about hoarding is a total fairy tale, My company utilizes of 1 million rounds per year, however our distributor has been mainly devoid of stock since July 2020, so that being said if Wholesalers have not received any significant stock, it is therefore logical that stores they supply are not having ammunition’s on their shelves for folk to buy to HOARD, as regards to Sig, the question maybe asked of Taylor why their own web site states on any caliber Not Available.
Curt says
Yes it’s just like the dam toilet paper hoarders had to have thankfully guess they figured out how to wipe their ass so other people could to maybe they will figure that out about ammo
John Tufts says
Once again the delusional left cannot understand the difference between lawful gun owners and criminal elements
Remember if peace is what you seek then for war you must prepare!!!
God bless the NRA.
John Tufts says
Once again the delusional left cannot understand the difference between lawful gun owners and criminal elements
Remember if peace is what you seek then for war you must prepare!!!
God bless the NRA.
Scott A Reichard says
Good article.. i was well prepared with guns and ammo and loading components. I sold a bunch of ammo to my students at the old prices from a few years ago. I wanted to help new shooters. I also supplied 7 cases of trap ammo to my club for the school and youth shooting programs. I have been injured and not shooting so it was a good use of ammo.
Paul says
Good for you Scott !
Cudos !
James McVeigh says
How do criminals get their ammo to commit murders and robberies ?
Bradley Johnson says
From the government silly.
Ryan Owen says
They don’t go waste them at the range
Dougal plume says
Gunsvalley now provides the best small pistol primers
https://gunsvalley.com/?post_types=&s=small+pistol+primers
robert williams says
all i can say is get busy Americans need this! shooting is a great sport transferred down to our children showing them how to be responsible gun owners in the future!!!!
Bryan says
Complete bullshit, there’s no steel shot shells for this falls hunting and season starts tomorrow, haven’t seen a box in town all year, so your bullshit is fake news…boom motherfuckers
Proud American Patriot says
What ? Earlier this year I saw a video from hornady, claiming they are running 27/7 making bullets and loaded ammo, and I still can’t fund either at the gun shops,and gun shows that I attend every two weeks ! Some one is buying up all the stock, and I’m sure it ain’t hunters and shooters. The government under Osama joe biden, is rabidly trying to disarm law abiding americans, and an easy way for us to be unarmed, without banning firearms is to buy every loaded cartridge and replacing component !
Johnny says
They waiting to drive th price up. Talk all u want about they and hold ammo because the or I got a Friend that works at a store that says there plielets of ammo in store hideing so the no what u want
Anthony says
Reading the paranoid, conspiracy theory, maniacal posts is sad and fake. I get all the ammo of almost any caliber I need. I can and do buy an endless supply from the Republican, Right Wing Corporations who sell ample supplies of all shotgun shell calibers, rimfire, center-fire, etc. Where do these alarmists get this twisted, fearful, blaming mentality? They must not know where to buy ammo. I will admit that only large corporate companies are getting ample ammo and weapons to sell but that’s simply the Republican/Democrat dynamic of wiping the small businesses off the map which has been happening for decades under all administrations. You dudes need to get your ammo at National Corporate Republican backed Suppliers like BassPro, Cabella’s, etc. Welcome to Republican/Democrat Corporatacracy kids.
Walter says
Some BassPros and Cabella’s also have little to no ammo and guns.
Some guy says
The fact that the shelves are empty is the definition of shortage.
Bradley Johnson says
The only true statement in this article is paragraph 1: “What good is a gun if I can’t shoot it?”
Wake up and smell the roses people: ammo is out because the masters of the universe disrupted the supply chain on purpose. They continue to keep the supply chain disrupted.
The author is ignorant, willful (paid off) or otherwise.
Tyson McMahon says
You got that right Brother! An intentional disruption of the supply chain. America is under attack from enemies within and abroad!
Chance Cook says
I can see how greedy customers share the blame for not having enough ammo. Scalpers are everywhere these days. So I am not surprised to hear they are taking ammunition too.
Mike says
Lost me in the first few paragraphs with the cursing.