Thanks to the pandemic and its one-two punch on the economy, I was furloughed from my day job — at a major health care provider in Michigan — in the middle of last summer. To pass the time, I took a seasonal gig behind the gun counter at a local outdoor sporting goods store. As the weeks ticked by, ammunition became increasingly scarce and the mood of our usually good-natured, loyal customers began to sour. Every day, sales associates were pelted by angry comments along the lines of, “What the fuck? You can sell me a gun, but you can’t sell me the ammunition that goes with it?” Or, “What good is a gun if I can’t shoot it?!” There were accusations of employee hoarding, hidden inventory, and even government conspiracies. So what’s the truth behind this national ammunition shortage?
The scarcity of ammunition is the result of a perfect storm that initially formed during the first quarter of 2020 as the effects of a worldwide pandemic took hold. In one fell swoop, the COVID-19 outbreak and the restrictions that came with it put the brakes on a roaring US economy. Businesses, many of which were considered financially sound prior to the pandemic, closed their doors for good. The worldwide supply chain snapped like a dry twig as we frantically searched for masks, hand sanitizer, isopropyl alcohol, toilet paper, food staples, and, yes, guns.
Widespread civil unrest swept the nation by summer, with intensity the likes of which we haven’t seen since the 1960s. Buildings burned, stores were looted, and reports of violence and rising crime rates made national headlines. All the while, some called to defund local and regional law enforcement agencies, and several municipalities followed through. Fear of the virus, fear of food shortages, and fear of riots — real or imagined — gripped many American hearts and minds. Guns and the ammo to feed them flew off the shelves in record numbers — and continue to do so — many going to people making their very first firearms purchase. When talking to these first-time customers from behind the counter where I work, I can’t tell you how many times the conversation starts with: “I never thought I would buy a gun.”
The storm was upgraded to hurricane status in the face of what was arguably the most contentious national election in US history. Among other polarizing political topics of the 2020 election was gun control. During the presidential campaign, Joe Biden proposed a federal gun registration under the National Firearms Act (NFA) and a $200 tax stamp for modern sporting rifles such as AR-15s, along with magazines with a capacity of 10 rounds or more. Whether these proposals will gain any traction or hold up in the courts is another question. Yet with a pro-gun-control majority now in Washington, firearms owners new and old are paying extra attention. This heightened state of awareness has created fertile ground for misinformation to take root regarding the lack of ammunition on store shelves. The most popular whoppers purport collusion between the big ammo companies to stockpile ammo and drive up demand, as well as a secret directive from the Biden administration to withhold ammo from citizens and only sell it to the military. While these conspiracy theories are certainly tasty to chew on, the truth is as bland as an unbuttered slice of bread.
Economics 101
The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), one of the leading trade associations in the firearms industry, estimates that 8.4 million people bought their first firearm in 2020. That number is staggering. While gun sales traditionally spike in election years, the unforeseen pressures created by the events of 2020 created unprecedented, history-making demand — and it was impossible to see it coming.
According to Tom Taylor, chief marketing officer and executive vice president for commercial sales with Sig Sauer, there is no sinister plot afoot. “Contrary to what you may hear from the rumor mill, the ammunition situation is not the result of some government conspiracy,” he said. “Sig is not a huge ammunition manufacturer, but we do a good amount of business with certain retailers and our direct-to-consumer channel. There is no shortage of guns and ammo — we are manufacturing more than ever. [The problem] is actually a massive increase in demand, on an unprecedented scale. Supply can simply not keep up with demand.”
Large manufacturers such as Vista Outdoor are experiencing the same challenges related to supply and demand. Vista owns the Federal, CCI, Speer, and (as of October 2020) Remington ammunition brands. Vista’s president of ammunition, Jason Vanderbrink, echoed Taylor’s remarks about supply and demand in a video to customers, published on YouTube.
“I’m tired of all the hate mail,” Vanderbrink said. “I’m tired of people showing up at our factories. I’m tired of reading the misinformation out on the internet right now [suggesting we are not] trying to service the demand that we’re experiencing. It gets really old when I hear and read constantly that our ammunition companies are not making ammunition [or that we’re storing it] in secret warehouses.”
Vanderbrink encourages frustrated consumers to focus on some basic economics: “7 million new shooters since March [2020], times two boxes [per customer] which is a conservative estimate, is 700 million new rounds of ammunition our three factories have to help produce,” he continued. (Note the words “new rounds” in his comments. Those 700 million rounds are over and above the quantity required to meet previous peak production metrics.)
Ramping up to meet these demands does not happen overnight. Expanding production means additional shifts, which, in turn, require a larger staff that must be trained. Complicating these efforts is Vista’s work to spin up the recently acquired Remington factory in Lonoke, Arkansas, which had been idle since Remington Outdoors filed for bankruptcy. Finally, Vanderbrink pointed out his beefed-up infrastructure only works efficiently when a commensurate inventory of raw material is available — in particular, primers and brass are in short supply.
“We are doing our damnedest to meet this demand,” he said. “We’re making more [ammo] than we ever have.”
Hoarders and Scalpers
Ammunition manufacturing plants being pushed beyond production capacity is only one part of the problem. Hungry and (in some cases) greedy customers share some of the blame as well. Much as the “Black Tuesday” stock market crash of 1929 caused Americans to panic and make a run on banks, the combined events of 2020 motivated gun owners to stockpile ammunition.
Around the holidays, I encountered a young shopper at my store who did not own a firearm chambered for a rimfire round but felt he should buy a bunch of .22 LR cartridges because they were the only handgun ammo we had in stock. Indeed, many gun owners developed the mentality of “if you see it, buy it” — whether they needed it or not. Sprinkle in a little paranoia associated with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosive’s recent debacle regarding AR-15 pistols, and a new president and Congress sweeping into Washington with a promise to push gun control — well, you get the picture.
While hoarding is certainly not helping the situation, one can understand that type of response, especially considering the past 12 months have been such a roller coaster of anxiety. A greater concern is the opportunistic individuals who have chosen to take advantage of a crisis to line their own pockets. Scalping is a process that’s typically associated with buying hard-to-find sporting event and concert tickets at face value, then reselling them at inflated prices. The ammo crisis is tailor-made to attract this type of unethical entrepreneurship as well. To combat scalping, many stores have imposed strict buying limits on customers and chosen to remain tight-lipped about scheduled delivery dates.
Sadly, certain brick-and-mortar stores across the country are in cahoots with scalpers as well. In a recent article for Outdoor Life, author Chris Mudgett described how the incredible demand for ammunition has created a secondary market: “Let’s say a local customer paid .50 cents per round in the spring, and has been out of work due to COVID. He recognizes he can make a little side money if he sells a quantity of his ammo back to the retailer for .75 cents per round, thus making a decent profit on his original purchase. The store then adds their margin, say .25 cents per round, and puts it on the shelves for a buck per round. This is pure economics and why you are seeing $100 boxes of 115-grain FMJ Winchester White Box bulk packs that should cost about $25 per 100 rounds.”
Of course, this practice is not representative of all retailers. Many out there are doing whatever is necessary to avoid gouging customers. According to Taylor, “Sig Sauer has made a very conscious effort to avoid price gouging. While we’ve certainly encountered cost increases with manufacturing, we have — for the most part — been able to absorb these increases without passing them on to our retailers who buy from us directly and customers who patronize our online store at sigsauer.com.” The problem is, there’s nothing to prevent someone from buying ammunition from ethical sellers at “normal” prices, then turning around and scalping it for a profit.
Is the end in sight? Unfortunately, there’s no clue about when ammunition inventories will normalize. Both Taylor and Vandenbrink referenced back orders that extend well into 2021. And that time frame does not necessarily account for the changing political climate in the US and the potential for more social unrest. However, consumers can rest assured that ammunition manufacturers are doing everything they can to continue pushing out rounds in record numbers. Until supply rises adequately to meet demand, remember your manners — avoid the temptation to hoard ammunition and share it with those in need.
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bobby says
its odd the perfect timing of this so called ammo shortage. other countries were making ammo and exporting to us before.
dont be a dumb sheep. this is deception and i would really like to know who is causing this. ammo shortage because someone is intentionally causing it. supply and demand suppose to deliver needs and will unless politics get involved.
JOE A ZACHARIAS says
What I would really like to see is how many #9 12 gauge trap loads they (Federal/win/Fiochi) made in 2019 and then made in 2021. I am willing to bet that these shortages of bird shot are caused by low supply because the mfgs are catering to the new gun owner market 9mm/5.56 etc. Also why is there a shortage on shot/wads and those #s from 2019 – 2021. We just went through the worst spike in lumber in history – the only way the price went down was because the demand did. In other words if you want this problem fixed STOP BUYING AMMO IDIOT AND STOP HOARDING!!!!! You are only screwing yourself ad fellow sportsmen. The problem will correct itself.
tom carroll says
Yes! All of these “johnny-come-lately” gun purchasers are NOT the reason there are virtually NO 20 ga. bird hunting loads. It’s the F-ing hoarders. I shoot quail and (high volume) doves with my 20 in southern Arizona and there are virtually no # 71/2 or 8 shot loads available ANYWHERE. Likewise shortages of components for reloading…. WTF?!
Craig says
Gun control freaks in the government. They said quite a while back that if they couldn’t take the guns they’d make it so hard to get,or afford ammunition that people couldn’t use them.
Raymond Stevens says
Lucky for the birds
Paul says
Tipical corporate answer. It all boils down to supply and demand, ie Ive got it, you need, it so you WILL pay my price, I’m a gun dealer so I can gouge prices all I want,
Take it or leave it.
P Horn says
For the last 16 months Federal premium Nosler 180 gr 30.06 has not been delivered to any ammo/ gun store in Nassau county Ny. I have called and driven to 18 quality stores every 2 to 3 weeks. IT has become a JOB. Federal is not shipping this hunting ammo. I have for over 30 years used this cartridge. All my family uses this and are sighted in. They are lying. Pure and simple. I can understand that people are buying more military ammo but who will buy hunting licenses if u can not buy ammo? Pure B S.
William says
I live in Northwest Alabama and I can tell you that ammo is not making it to the store shelves to be bought, hoarded,ect. So where the beef? I want to see all you genius’s explain that away! I’m tired of all the excuses and educated explanations when us consumers still see no ammo.
Jim Cvikel says
You really didn’t tell anyone who has been looking for ammo anything they didn’t already know! I think a better story would be about when will it get better! Hunting season is almost upon us and there is still no rifle ammo available! Maybe a story on how the stores should maybe limit each customer to one box per week and spread it out. There has to be a better way then how it’s being done right now!
Leo says
I don’t understand why the author thinks the ammo shortage started in 2019. The pandemic and civil unrest contributed to the current problem. But, I clearly remember empty ammo shelves since the Obama years. Traditionally, in capitalism supply meets demand. Why hasn’t production caught up? During WWII the US alone produced 21.6 billion rounds of small arms ammunition per year. So obviously, it is possible to up production to even a fraction of that number. The only thing I can think of for the lack of production is government interference.
George Hetherington says
Online sales to hoarders and ammo retailers buying ammo from these leaches have created this shortage and price gouging. Don’t buy from individuals online, and let them choke on the thousdands of rounds they have greedily acquired. I will refuse to do business with retailers, who buy from these leaches, now and forever! I have refrained from buying a new rifle in 6.5 creedmoor for banging steel at long range, because of this ammo shortage and I know I am not alone in this thinking. If retailers would limit the number of boxes and keep track of sales to individuals, they would go a long ways in returning ammunition to store shelves for everyone. For all you leaches, I have two boxes each for my hunting rifles, so I will never have to buy another round for them in my lifetime, rather than do business with you greedy profiteers.
Taylor Hicken says
I found it interesting when you shared that the incredible demand for ammunition has created a secondary market for firearm products. It is best to avoid the temptation to hoard, instead share it with those in need. I would like to think if a company needs to get high-quality ammunition, it should consider getting them from a reliable supplier.
Michael bernier says
What are you guys keep it up hopefully I’ll get some ammunition soon you guys take care and be healthy
Kevin says
Just got back from deer hunting,
I used a box of shells from ten
Years ago. 270 150 grain. Still
Have seven left. You don’t need to hoard. The one that I shot
Dropped a nice buck.
Bruce Sutterby says
Perfect! Last box of Core-Lokt was three years old, I had two primers in a row not burn so I shot the other seven to close out the box. I went to a small private gun shop off the beaten path, found a box of Norma 270 130 gr. for $29 clams two month ago. I got spoiled with Walmart back in the day, 556, 9mm, dove & quail, 270…Maybe we all did! I love the range and anything that goes bang, our heritage either with Grandpa or Sports Afield is in our dna. Find your caliber, gun and glass ( you need good glass) and a box of twenty rds will last through a pinch.
Mark says
I have been trying to buy shotgun shells for waterfowl hunting since March of this year and there are none to be had except for the high end stuff. If they are producing it, where is it going? I have an acquaintance that works in a sporting goods outlet and haven’t heard a thing from him about any waterfowl ammo that has come in so where is it going if they are producing it???
Terry littlejohn says
Government paying them not to make the ammo ! Period ! Just like there paying farmers not to farm!
Jay Owen says
I agree completely. I live in upstate NY and this is the second time in 10 years that ammo supplies have dried up. Liberals are forcing gun and ammunition makers out of business by paying lawyers to do their self proclaimed declaration of law and order. Lawmakers are scared of all the gun owners because they are the only ones left to stop them from complete control and dictatorship.
Bob says
Seems strange that as soon as the Democrats are in power the reloading components and ammunition disappeared.
Steve says
All the conspiracy thinking here is stunning.
No conspiracy, boys. It be real S-I-M-P-L-E:
1) Democrat wins Presidency (Bigly, I might add)
2) Gun folks FREAK OUT and hoard.
3) Scarcity ensues
4) WILD conspiracy theories ABOUND and PROLIFERATE.
5) No one comes to collect guns/ammo after all!!! Who knew?!?!?!
6) Republican wins Presidency.
7) Gun folks relax and instantly forget steps 1 through 5
8) Repeat ad infinitum
Those who ignore history – etc, etc.
Jamie Sedgewick says
Great, except this current ammo shortage started about a year before DB Biden cheated the election process to take office.
Dean says
EXACTLY!
John Howard says
The ammo shortage is TOTALLY driven by conspiracy theorists and fear! I have seen people who would normally buy just one or two boxes of ammo at the local gun store now ask for 10 boxes at a time. When that crazy s–t stops, the shortage will stop.
Anyone remember the empty toilet paper aisles when the pandemic started in March 2020?
Larry Jones says
I understand the shortage and the demand. What I don’t understand is why there is so much 223,5.56, and 9mm available and not much if any in hunting cartridges and at tripple the price when you do find it.
Chris says
Nice, you flag any comments critical of Vista Outdoor as spam.
Pat says
Most of the new gun owners bought thier 2 boxes of ammo and will never fire a round. On the other hand the number of new trap, skeet and sporting clay shooter has not increased . Target ammo is worthless for self defense, so where is all the target ammo. I can tell you it is not in the distributors warehouses, as I was in many of them last summer and thier empty.
We have some imported target ammo available but very little from the 2 american companies. ‘They say they are making it 7 x 24 , if so where is it ??????????
Trap Shooter says
Have trouble believing anything anyone says. I went from purchasing 10,000 shotgun Target loads per year for the last 20 years to nothing. Sometimes I see a box of 25 for inflated prices just having trouble digesting the b******* I’m being fed.
john brown says
I have not seen the NRA say or do anything on this matter. This is a second amendment matter. The ammo shortage is planned and staged by the same people that want gun control. This is just another tactic.
James says
Please make some 45 colt long